AfD at 43.8% in Saxony-Anhalt: Germany’s shift to the right is now setting Merz’s agenda

AUTHOR: Ruslana PETROVA

What does AfD’s 43.8% in Saxony-Anhalt mean for Germany’s future? Will Friedrich Merz turn his promises of border controls, returns and security into a permanent state policy? And will Berlin succeed in combining a tougher migration policy with European rules?

Germany is no longer debating whether migration is a political problem. It is debating who has the capacity to impose rules, control the borders and restore trust in the state.

On September 6, 2026, AfD won 43.8% of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt and secured 39 of the 83 seats in the state parliament. This is a historic result for the party and almost double its 2021 result, when it received 23.7%. The state’s official statistics and final results confirm the scale of the breakthrough.

AfD does not have an outright majority. Governing without a coalition requires 42 seats. Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democrats received 17.2% and 15 seats, while the other parties have officially refused to cooperate with AfD.

This keeps the party out of direct power in the state, but no longer keeps it out of the political agenda. Migration, security and state control have become issues on which every German party must take a clear position.

AfD won the election, but does not yet govern

The victory in Saxony-Anhalt matters far beyond the state’s borders. In the federal election in February 2025, AfD received 20.8% and won 152 seats in the Bundestag. The official results showed that the party had already become Germany’s main opposition force.

It has now almost doubled its result in one of eastern Germany’s key states. Migration and internal security were among the leading campaign issues, but they were joined by economic discontent, weak public services and the feeling that the traditional parties talk more than they act.

This is where the major challenge for Germany’s political center lies. The firewall against AfD may keep the party out of coalitions, but it cannot eliminate the issues that brought it to first place.

The longer the traditional parties refuse to engage directly with voters on illegal migration, crime and border controls, the more room they leave for AfD to present itself as the only political force with ready answers.

Merz is already tightening his migration policy

The change in Berlin began before the election in Saxony-Anhalt. On May 7, 2025, Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt announced stricter border checks and a more active returns policy.

Friedrich Merz’s government made reducing illegal migration, speeding up procedures, increasing pre-deportation detentions, returning people without the right to reside more quickly, and consistently deporting convicted criminals and people deemed dangerous its priorities.

In its official plan dated August 14, 2026, the cabinet spoke of a “reversal” in internal security policy and of “orderly migration”. The measures announced include more checks at the common borders, expanding the list of safe countries of origin, new return agreements, ending voluntary admission programs and speeding up judicial procedures. The full government package outlines the new course.

Germany continues to define itself as an immigration country, but it is now placing immigration within a framework of rules, checks and requirements. The right to asylum remains in force, but access to it is becoming a significantly more tightly managed process.

One of the most concrete changes is the temporary suspension of family reunification for people with subsidiary protection status until July 23, 2027. The measure is set out in Germany’s Residence Act. The wording of the provision is part of the new policy to limit secondary migration.

Berlin is already trying to apply this approach at the border. In June 2025, an administrative court ruled that the return of three Somali asylum seekers to Poland had been carried out in violation of European procedures. The ruling did not halt the checks policy, but showed that the tougher approach must be built on a functioning legal framework. Reuters described the case in detail.

Asylum applications are falling

Germany’s figures are now moving in a direction that gives the “Merz” cabinet a political argument. In the first half of 2026, 39,646 first-time asylum applications were filed, compared with 72,818 during the same period in 2025.

In July 2026, 4,311 first-time applications were registered, almost half the 8,293 recorded in July 2025. Tagesschau data show that the decline is not a one-off monthly effect.

At the European level, the EU Agency for Asylum recorded 332,000 applications in the first six months of 2026. This is a 17% decline compared with the same period a year earlier and the lowest first half of a year since 2021. EUAA said that France, Italy, Spain and Germany received around three-quarters of all applications.

The trend began before the CDU/CSU-SPD coalition took office in May 2025. It is influenced by changes in routes, the policies of transit countries, bilateral agreements and the European Union’s common rules.

The EU Pact on Migration and Asylum came into force on June 12, 2026. It introduces mandatory registration and checks, an expanded Eurodac database, border procedures for certain categories of applicants, accelerated processing of applications and a clearer return mechanism. The European Commission defines the system as a common mechanism for control, responsibility and solidarity.

Security has become a central criterion

Germany’s police statistics for 2025 recorded around 5.5 million offenses, a 5.6% decline from the previous year. The number of suspects fell by 5.9% to approximately 2.05 million.

Violent crime also fell by 2.3%, but the number of rape cases increased by 9%. The share of suspects without German citizenship among those suspected of violent crime was 42.9%, while for rape it was 38.5%. The German government’s official summary places these figures at the heart of the new security debate.

Police statistics record citizenship and status, not religion. Political responses therefore focus on specific individuals, crimes, convictions and residence decisions.

The attack in Solingen on August 23, 2024, remains one of the strongest examples in this debate. Three people were killed in the knife attack, while another ten were injured in an attempted murder. The perpetrator is a Syrian national who was supposed to be returned to Bulgaria under European rules. He was later sentenced to life in prison. Associated Press followed the case and the court proceedings.

After such attacks, the public questions are specific: who missed the warning sign, why was the return decision not carried out, and why did the institutions fail to respond in time?

From online radicalization to bans on organizations

Germany is also tightening its policy toward groups that authorities say promote an anti-constitutional ideology.

On November 5, 2025, German authorities banned Muslim Interaktiv, accusing the organization of promoting a caliphate and acting against the constitutional order. Searches were also carried out against other associated groups. Reuters reported that the organization had been active mainly through demonstrations and social media.

In July 2024, Germany banned Islamic Centre Hamburg and affiliated organizations after searches at dozens of locations. Authorities cited a totalitarian Islamist ideology and links to radical organizations. Reuters described the operation.

Social media have turned radical propaganda into a constant presence, through demonstrations, symbols, calls for a caliphate and messages directed against the state. Berlin now views these developments as part of internal security, rather than merely a conflict of opinions.

The government is also working on measures against radicalizing algorithms, online anti-Semitism and propaganda targeting the democratic order. At the same time, the measures are directed at specific organizations and violations of the law.

Europe is building a new system for borders and returns

Germany’s shift fits into a broader European change. Countries are seeking stronger external controls, faster procedures and more effective return mechanisms at the same time.

Finland is keeping its land border with Russia closed until further notice. The decision is linked to Helsinki’s accusations that Moscow is using migration flows as a security tool. Reuters points out that the measure applies to the eastern border.

Finland is also building a fence along the Russian border, with a planned length of around 200 kilometers. The first 35 kilometers were completed in May 2025. Reuters links the project to concerns about the controlled steering of migrants toward the border.

Italy is testing a different model through centers in Albania intended to process and return people whose asylum applications have been rejected. The idea has run into legal and logistical problems, but it has placed returns outside the EU’s territory at the center of the European political debate.

Nine European countries, including Denmark, Italy, Austria, Belgium, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland, have called for a change in the way the European Court of Human Rights handles the removal of foreign nationals convicted of serious crimes. Le Monde notes that Germany and France did not sign the initiative.

Europe is not moving toward a uniform policy in all countries. It is building a network of different instruments: physical border controls, accelerated procedures, return agreements, centers outside the EU and stricter rules for criminals without the right to reside.

The tough approach will also depend on integration

German policy will not be successful merely by reducing the number of illegal crossings. It will also have to show what happens to people who are granted the right to stay.

A study by Germany’s Institute for Employment Research shows that among those who arrived in 2015, the employment rate reached 64% nine years after their arrival. Among men, employment stood at 76%, while among women it was 35%. The average earnings of full-time workers were around 70% of those of all full-time employees. The IAB analysis reports progress, but also significant disparities.

These figures are important for the German economy, which continues to need workers. That is why the new policy separates illegal migration from the legal recruitment of skilled workers.

Germany wants less unregulated migration, but more controlled recruitment of workers, faster recognition of qualifications, language training and clear requirements for participation in social and economic life.

The next test for Friedrich Merz is implementation

AfD’s victory in Saxony-Anhalt does not make the party the governing force in federal Germany. It does, however, turn migration into a test that the Merz cabinet can no longer avoid.

Berlin must prove that it can control the borders, process applications quickly, enforce return decisions and remove people who pose a proven risk. At the same time, it must create a functioning system for integrating those who have the right to stay.

If the government implements this program, it can bring migration back within the framework of state policy instead of leaving it as AfD’s monopoly. If it remains at the level of slogans, the radical right will continue to benefit from every unfulfilled promise.

Germany’s shift to the right is already a fact. The next question is who will manage it, the state with rules or the street with slogans.